Australian ETF - Weekly Review (27 September 2026)

Plenty to watch this week; US markets strong as tech makes a resurgence; Meanwhile the Aussie market remains on edge with a likely interest rate hike incoming; Let’s see how the market trades ...

➡️Getting Closer to the US Mid-Terms

• Market weakness has been modest and seasonally normal,
• Stocks are now entering the historically favorable Sweet Spot of the Four-Year Cycle, extending from Q4 of the midterm year through Q2 of the pre-election year.

➡️Running our of stored OIL!

• The world has kept itself supplied with fuel through six months of disruption by drawing on the oil it had already stored,
• The scale of that drawdown has no parallel in the available record.

Here is what we cover each and every week:

• Market Health-o-Meter
  • The signal let’s us know if it is a good time to invest or not.
• US ETF Risk On / Off Measure
  • This secondary signal provides further confirmation.
• Best Ideas Satellite Performance
  • We put our best ideas to the test.
• Key Ideas Count
  • More ideas usually means better markets.
• Paid Subscribers Actionable Summary
  • Our concise summary for subscribers for the week ahead.
• Key Ideas (Satellite Model Portfolio)
  • We show the buy and stop loss triggers.
• Review: Best Ideas Satellite Portfolio Review
  • Our trades, and our plan for the week ahead.
• ETF Movers
  • Weekly
  • Monthly
• ETF Asset Class Review
  • Cash
  • Currency
  • Core ETFs
  • Income ETFs (including income model portfolio)
  • Crypto Assets
  • Commodity
  • Australian Index
  • Australian Sector
  • Equity Global
  • Equity Asia & Emerging Markets
  • Global Theme
  • Global Tech
  • Global Infrastructure
• ETF in Focus

Market Health-o-Meter

Current Reading = 🔴

We track 17 key ETFs covering a broad range of markets and sectors to gauge the health of the markets from an Australian investor perspective.

➡️A slight improvement on last week, however we remain on 🔴 here.

• Above 10 Day Moving Average = 7/17 🔴
• Above 20 Day Moving Average = 7/17 🔴
• Above 50 Day Moving Average = 7/17 🔴
• Above 200 Day Moving Average = 8/17 🟠

Signal History

• Demonstrates the performance of the S&P500, ASX200 and a core portfolio holding (e.g. VDGR) from the period of our signal changes so far in 2026:
• The choppy nature of this signal gives you all the information you need to know about being an Aussie investor at the moment - it has been challenging.

US ETF Risk on / Risk off

Current Reading = 🟠

We track 9 key ETFs listed in the US to gauge risk tolerance.

• A little worse than last week, but we remain on 🟠 which suggests there are pockets of strength.

➡️ Performance since inception 1 June 2025:

• We are biding our time to take on new positions in the coming weeks.

Portfolio Data (44% cash holding)

• We hit some stops, so raised our cash.
• We avoid market corrections by raising cash and protecting our gains:

Key Ideas Count

Here are the number of key ideas we have for the best ideas satellite model portfolio for the week ahead - the stronger the market, the more ideas we will have because the charts will reflect this.

A good amount of ideas, but largely linked to one sector - we would prefer a strong market heath-o-meter reading before getting more bullish.