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Weekly Report

Australian ETF - Weekly Review (4 October 2026)

Joshua Stega

Joshua Stega

— 25 min read
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Australian ETF - Weekly Review (4 October 2026)

An inflection week, do recent lows hold or do they fail?

➡️Government Debt Issues

  • Investors are demanded more yield to lend to Governments globally
  • This plays into our theme of rotation away from Governments to private investments

➡️Money Leaving Europe

  • Money is leaving the UK and Europe in favor of USD.

➡️Bond Volatility Spike

  • Now the risk is the the VIX follows, when markets are already weak.

Here is what we cover each and every week:

  • Market Health-o-Meter
    • The signal let’s us know if it is a good time to invest or not.
  • US ETF Risk On / Off Measure
    • This secondary signal provides further confirmation.
  • Best Ideas Satellite Performance
    • We put our best ideas to the test.
  • Key Ideas Count
    • More ideas usually means better markets.
  • Paid Subscribers Actionable Summary
    • Our concise summary for subscribers for the week ahead.
  • Key Ideas (Satellite Model Portfolio)
    • We show the buy and stop loss triggers.
  • Review: Best Ideas Satellite Portfolio Review
    • Our trades, and our plan for the week ahead.
  • ETF Movers
    • Weekly
    • Monthly
  • ETF Asset Class Review
    • Cash
    • Currency
    • Core ETFs
    • Income ETFs (including income model portfolio)
    • Crypto Assets
    • Commodity
    • Australian Index
    • Australian Sector
    • Equity Global
    • Equity Asia & Emerging Markets
    • Global Theme
    • Global Tech
    • Global Infrastructure
  • ETF in Focus

Market Health-o-Meter

Current Reading = 🔴

We track 17 key ETFs covering a broad range of markets and sectors to gauge the health of the markets from an Australian investor perspective.

➡️A little worse than last week, hence we reamin on 🔴 here.

  • Above 10 Day Moving Average = 7/17 🔴
  • Above 20 Day Moving Average = 6/17 🔴
  • Above 50 Day Moving Average = 6/17 🔴
  • Above 200 Day Moving Average = 7/17 🟠➡️🔴

Signal History

  • Demonstrates the performance of the S&P500, ASX200 and a core portfolio holding (e.g. VDGR) from the period of our signal changes so far in 2026:
  • The choppy nature of this signal gives you all the information you need to know about being an Aussie investor at the moment - it has been challenging.

US ETF Risk on / Risk off

Current Reading = 🟠

We track 9 key ETFs listed in the US to gauge risk tolerance.
  • A little worse than last week, but we remain on 🟠 as we have some potential lows in place now.

➡️ Performance since inception 1 June 2025:

  • We are biding our time to take on new positions in the coming weeks.

Portfolio Data (86% cash holding)

  • We hit some stops, so raised our cash.
  • We avoid market corrections by raising cash and protecting our gains:
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Key Ideas Count

Here are the number of key ideas we have for the best ideas satellite model portfolio for the week ahead - the stronger the market, the more ideas we will have because the charts will reflect this.

A good amount of ideas, but largely linked to one sector - we would prefer a strong market heath-o-meter reading before getting more bullish.